Marketview: Point of Reference

The Greek default has come and gone and it’s no surprise that the news was baked into the cake.  This was also the week that made believers out of everyone.  Nonfarm payrolls could not be argued with.  The recovery is real and the bull market is real, so why do I feel so pessimistic about the market?

The right stocks are no longer leading the rally.  Retail has come in to claim the last gasping breath of this leg up.  We need to recharge and consolidate before the next leg up.  So if you’re feeling bearish, you now have a point of reference.  Just know that if we close above 1385 we’re probably looking at 1400 in a flash.  All of my trend indicators are still pointing skyward, but ever since we had those clumsy buy programs I’ve been very defensive on the market.

This is not a bearish manifesto.  I am bullish overall and dips are still to be bought, but I also know this market has a penchant for violence.  I’m concerned that the once-coveted safety sectors have been discarded back in line with ratios seen before 2011 correction.  For the first time this year I can feel the true bullish sentiment among the investing public.  Everyone has stopped hating this market.

Winners: $COST, $WMT, $TGT, $LOW, $HD, $AMZN, $QCOM

Losers: $FCX, $CAT, $HPQ, $GOOG, $DELL, OXY, $UNP



S&P 500 resistance:

Safety trade:

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