Historical Precendent: Fourth Quarter Nonfarm Payrolls ES_F, SPY, SPX

Here are some select examples of weeks in the fourth quarter where Nonfarm Payrolls are released.  These were selected by our algo as loosely similar to the situation we’re currently in.  As you can see, the general trend is higher.  Key takeaway: watch the direction on Wednesday, taking out Tuesday’s range can be the tell for a reversal on the week.

The last Nonfarm payrolls week (October 4 – 7, 2011) pivoted the market and led to a run of over 20%.  In my opinion this is the single most gamed economic release in the US markets.  Anything can happen, but I’m looking for a pullback and then weekly highs made into the Friday report.  We’ll see where we go from there.

October 3 – 7. 2011:

November 29 – December 3, 2010:

October 4 – 8, 2010:

November 2 – 6, 2009:

December 1 – 5, 2008:

November 3 – 7, 2008:

December 3 – 7, 2007:

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