Nonfarm Payroll Week Precedents SPY, SPX, ES_F

In the last post I mentioned that based on Tuesday’s key reversal there was good chance that the shorts get squeezed into Friday’s nonfarm payroll announcement.  Sure, it’s the next logical inflection point for the market, but what else was I basing this on?

Below are some examples of other nonfarm payroll weeks that our database flagged as similar and potentially repeating patterns.  Similar how you ask?  Seasonality and calendar events that the program deems important are used as inputs as well as a bunch of other proprietary factors.  These weeks occurred in a variety market conditions but the patterns were similar enough to flag.

The market can throw any number of curve balls between now and then, judging by these analogs Thursday afternoon or Friday morning should be the high for the week.

Here are the analogs I was watching as events were unfolding — hence the prediction/guess for the rest of the week.  Do you see any patterns?

November 29 – December 3, 2010:

November 1 – 5, 2010:

October 4 – 8, 2010:

November 30 – December 4, 2009:

November 2 – 6 2009:

December 1 – 5, 2008:

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