Turnaround Tuesday

I’m not ready to call a long-term bottom in the market here.  But a tradable bottom for the knife catchers among us?  Definitely.  The shorts need to be very cautious here.  There’s a very real chance they get squeezed into Friday’s Nonfarm payrolls.  That means the market could belong to this guy until then.

Has anything been fixed?  Nope.  Is being fixed a prerequisite for the overall supply/demand relationship of the market?  Nah.

Support was hit at $SPX 1070 and we bounced.  How far we go is anyone’s guess.  Longer term, I’ll start to get bullish when we see investors selling (capitulating) out of the most defensive stocks.  You’ll notice that many of these tickers in the capitulation watchlist are from the so-called safety trade of utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples.  Point being: there is no safety at market bottoms.

Capitulation watchlist: $AEP, $SO, $PEG, $BMY, $PFE, $MO, $CL, $MCD

Note: we should see the following chart below the 200-day moving average as a minimum.  More likely it will breach the August lows.

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