Nonfarm Payroll Precedents SPX, ES_F

Tomorrow is nonfarm payrolls day, or employment situation day.  In my opinion this is the single biggest economic event from a gaming the market perspective.  It’s one of the most widely reported economic reports in the media and lots of big players jockey and position themselves and their firms around the report.

The S&P futures are trading in globex when the number is announced so big players can push the futures hard in both directions before the deep liquidity shows up.  Does it really matter what the numbers are as far as beating or missing the consensus?  Nope.  It all depends what the market action in the days and weeks preceding the numbers and the interpretations going forward.  More importantly from the pits of Chicago: who is bid and offered in size, who is selling or buying in size, who is too long or too short going into the number and where are their stops.  Check out the $ES_F charts of the last six NFP release days and look at the gap opens this action produces.  Five of the last six have gapped significantly (in both directions).  Bet on a seeing a gap and some decent volatility.

Can you see any other patterns in these charts?

August 5, 2011:

July 8, 2011:

June 3, 2011:

May 6, 2011:

 

April 1, 2011:

March 4, 2011:


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