Sometimes It’s Best To Walk Away

A couple weeks back, I wrote about one of my all-time favorite spreads that had “blown up.”  Some people looked at the chart and said, “buying opportunity.”  I said, “knock yourself out.”

I’ve seen a few of these blow-ups.  Once they move this far, they’ve trapped way too many people to let anyone up for air.  This spread needs time before I will trade it again, otherwise the trade will just look better, and better, and better until I have no more money in my account.

This is opportunity to someone, and I’m not totally discounting the fact that it may come back.  It’s a matter of time-frame and opportunity cost.  I will continue to stand aside until my algos tell me otherwise.

Here’s the chart from the original post:

Here’s the chart from today… notice that after a brief retracement it is now trading $5+ lower.  UGLY.


The Cheese Moves (Dynamic Hedge)

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