The Art Of Timing

I don’t watch CNBC during the trading day.  Sometimes I feel a little bit out-of-touch with what’s going on in the financial media, but that’s what StockTwits is for.  The guys in my stream are always chatting about who’s saying what about who when.  I really appreciate how quick they are with useful commentary.

I said a couple weeks ago that the correction was upon us.  I never anticipated that it would unfold in this manner.  From March 1:

For the near term it appears that we’re in for a decent correction.  The previous support of 1300 in the SPX will more than likely give way in the next few days and global equities should trade lower as the global risk assets of oil, gold, silver trade higher.

This sentiment still stands:

Once we finish the difficult work of correcting, growth stocks will be where you want to be.  Make no mistake.  This is the time to figure out which margin call you would like to purchase.

We’re still in a bull market.  The only question is how deep the correction.  If you want my advice for trying to time a bottom, pick a famous bear, preferably one with a bowtie.  When CNBC starts parading bears in suits we are at least getting close to a bottom.  My favorite perma-bear is Robert Prechter, an amazingly dedicated and talented analyst who just happens to come to the wrong conclusion about markets — repeatedly.

The time is now to plan your attack.  We are in the midst of great two-way trade and stocks are on sale, provided that Japan doesn’t meltdown.

It’s getting late in the game for this correction in the short and medium term.  Overdue, in fact.  Only the longest time period I track indicates that we have the possibility of 12 more days of downward pressure.  That said, there’s a lot of weirdness in this market.  I’ve personally never traded through the threat of nuclear fallout, so it may be some rough sledding ahead.

Happy St. Patrick’s day!  Trade well.


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