MOS — Die Before You Wake

The Mosaic spin-off news feels like a moment became unstuck in time.  I walked into the office today and arrived at my desk in 2009 to relive the AgChem merger daisy chain of CF, TRA, AGU.  We are living in the shadow of the “fertilizer wars.”  The stakes have not changed.

What has changed is that the deals will be bigger and more consequential.  The fate of countries very existence hangs in securing these scarce resources.  The creativity and scope of M&A activity in this cycle could be staggering.  What forgotten thesis do we have to revisit?  Will we go to sleep tonight and wake up in another era?  It’s time to take another look at the relationships and pairings that make sense, and also think outside the traditional deals.  Everything in the basic materials sector can be considered in play.

Both MOS and POT have been the prime takeover targets in the AgChem space for more than a year.  It’s probable that MOS will be acquired once all the dust settles in the spin-off.

Cargill to Split Off Mosaic Unit in Complex Deal (Deal Book)


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